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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd